“It took us three years to find someone to manage our wealth, and we can now sleep at night! ”

Darren and Ruth Johnston (Semi-retired entrepreneurs) (N Wales) (2011)

The Stock Market archive

The Big Picture June 2016

2 monthly round up of what you really need to know, in order to preserve and grow your portfolio.

Posted by jdavis on June 30, 2016

The Big Picture April 2016

I expect 2015 to 2018 to be similar to 2000 to 2003, the difference though being interest rates are already practically rock bottom. Think again about that.

Posted by jdavis on April 29, 2016

The Big Picture February 2016

Posted by jdavis on February 16, 2016

Focus on... stock markets

Posted by jdavis on February 16, 2016

The Big Picture December 2015

In The Big Picture I show what is really going on and what informs our thinking. The following is a sample of what I see now.

Posted by jdavis on December 30, 2015

Stock markets

The bull market can resume if the S&P rises to new highs and drags most sectors along with it. If, however, it is locked below early 2015 highs then we may well have reversed to a bear market.

Posted by jdavis on October 30, 2015

The Big Picture

Posted by jdavis on October 30, 2015

Focus on... gold mining

There is extraordinary value in Gold mining shares.

Posted by jdavis on October 30, 2015

Focus on oil investing

Buy Low.

Posted by jdavis on September 11, 2015

The Big Picture

These are some economics and markets stats you must see.

Posted by jdavis on September 11, 2015

Oh, you don't want to do THAT!

Advice to ruin your financial life

Posted by jdavis on September 11, 2015

Summer 2015 Market Commentary

After reading this, you will probably feel the need to review your portfolio.

Posted by jdavis on September 10, 2015

You can only make money in the stock market

We were confident that the early 2015 highs were not a good buy.

Posted by jdavis on June 17, 2015

Greece is the word

Posted by jdavis on April 21, 2015

Oil and energy investment opportunities

In late March we invested into Global Energy shares and we increased our investments in Emerging Markets' shares. The former is already up around 12% and the latter 7%.

Posted by jdavis on April 21, 2015

Disinflation affecting asset prices

The next time we have a Recession, remember they cannot slash rates as they did in 2009. Thus, in our expectation, the Recession will turn Depressionary.

Posted by jdavis on April 14, 2015

FTSE

Normally, when Government Bonds rise sustainably, this is a bad omen for share prices. Yet shares are being bought more than for years.

Posted by jdavis on December 24, 2014

Commodity prices and Russia

Why is no-one talking about Russian stocks as buys? Because investors seem to only want to buy expensive assets. Too funny. And detrimental to wealth creation/preservation.

Posted by jdavis on December 24, 2014

US Treasuries

Nearly a third of advanced countries (or those which seek to be advanced) are right now in deflation.

Posted by jdavis on November 7, 2014

DISinflation leading potentially to DEflation

Central bankers, bankers and politicians hate Deflation. Look at all that debt which would accumulate in real terms. Of course, the people would benefit greatly from Deflation. Business costs would fall. Living costs would fall. The Government and the Bank of England don't want you to experience falling prices. You Couldn't Make It Up.

Posted by jdavis on October 27, 2014

Western stock markets

So, everyone's making money in stocks, right? You decide.

Posted by jdavis on October 27, 2014

Emerging markets' index

Posted by jdavis on August 31, 2014

US Treasuries

One of our big investment holdings is the bonds of the United States. They are called Treasuries. (In the UK they call them Gilts). The next chart shows the price movement of US Treasuries (USTs)

Posted by jdavis on August 31, 2014

Precious Metals' investing

Small Cap miners has been a rocket ship

Posted by jdavis on June 20, 2014

Update to Investments ideas

Posted by jdavis on June 13, 2014

FT: Volatility extinguished by moves from central banks

Posted by jdavis on June 13, 2014

Update to Japanese ¥ to Japanese share prices

Sayanora ¥ Konichiwa Nikkei San

Posted by jdavis on May 10, 2014

Margin Debt

Margin Debt is at all time highs. The Case Shiller Index is 3rd highest in history.

Posted by jdavis on April 15, 2014

Emerging Markets or Developed Markets?

We have been wondering out loud why it was appropriate to invest (in recent months) in shares which have risen for the last 5 years (Developed Markets) and sell out of markets which have crashed (Emerging Markets).

Posted by jdavis on April 15, 2014

Japanese ¥ to Nikkei Dow

If ¥:Nikkei breaks up, it means, probably, the ¥ is rising and the Nikkei is falling.

Posted by jdavis on February 26, 2014

China and Emerging Markets

There's been a lot of press and media comment recently on China's manufacturing data and overall economic activity.

Posted by jdavis on February 22, 2014

A brief update

Posted by jdavis on December 5, 2011

Santa's coming?

Posted by jdavis on November 28, 2011

Arrivederci Silvio Ciao Mario

Posted by jdavis on November 11, 2011

Tell me again. How do you reduce debt by taking more on?

Posted by jdavis on October 27, 2011

Zig Zag Zig and maybe a further Zag Zig

Posted by jdavis on August 26, 2011

Armageddon or bust!

Posted by jdavis on August 5, 2011

US economy gone negative

Posted by jdavis on April 20, 2011

Client only markets' update

Posted by jdavis on March 16, 2011

Benny and the Jet-propelled printing presses

Posted by jdavis on November 4, 2010

Paraphrasing the Bible: The market moves in mysterious ways

Posted by jdavis on September 27, 2010

Question: Which is the most important client-only update sent during these last few years? Answer: This one!

Posted by jdavis on July 2, 2010

Hold the presses - a financial regulator does its job!

This table was in The Economist last Friday. We said, just last Tuesday, that we see UK prices falling c 25-35% and this journal complies with our view with its estimate of 31% overvaluation in Q4 2009.

Posted by jdavis on April 19, 2010

Where's a Busby Berkeley when you need one?

Can the market continue rising? Is it more likely to fall than rise? If it rises what are the chances it will then fall to below where we are.

Posted by jdavis on October 6, 2009

The recession is over. Thus, sell shares!

We believe that, after 4 quarters of falling GDP, the next announcement or the one after will show that we have experienced a GROWING economy in the preceding quarter.

Posted by jdavis on August 27, 2009

Is it a bird? Is it a plane? No its Super Equities Man! Up, up and away?

I’m starting to wonder how far it will go. To the end of last year and in March I suggested 40-80% ie to between roughly 4750-5250 on the FTSE 100.

Posted by jdavis on August 3, 2009

Turn Turn Turn (The Byrds 1965)

Well, our current view (and it could change in a week if something major, globally, were to happen) is that this is a minor pullback to be followed by a continuation of the rally.

Posted by jdavis on June 23, 2009

It was the best of times. It was the worst of times. What a difference a ‘week’ makes.

From a view with just 25% conviction a few weeks ago i.e. that ...the stock market... would rise ongoing, we have come to the conclusion that we have seen the bottom.

Posted by jdavis on March 20, 2009

2008 and 2009: Years of return OF capital, not necessarily return ON capital

We are close to a major turning point in the stock market and during the weekend I considered very carefully what action to take.

Posted by jdavis on February 2, 2009

What a Year! Where are we?

Posted by jdavis on December 22, 2008

Sell in May and Go Away, Come Back St Leger's Day

We have been watching closely the mini-rally in the stock market since we turned cautiously bullish in February

Posted by jdavis on May 20, 2008