“Economist/Wealth Manager tells it as it is rather than what you want to hear. Advice built on hard economic facts, tailored to your needs”

Roy Duncan FCCA - Chartered Accountant and Recruiter (C London) 2012

Investing archive

Next generation’s need for planning

Posted by jdavis on October 31, 2016

£ Sterling

Posted by jdavis on October 31, 2016

Help to Buy ISA v Lifetime ISA

Posted by jdavis on June 30, 2016

Focus on... Government Bonds

Lenders are prepared to accept lower and lower rates of interest as THEY BELIEVE INFLATION WILL FALL OR EVEN WE GO TO DEFLATION.

Posted by jdavis on June 30, 2016

The Big Picture June 2016

2 monthly round up of what you really need to know, in order to preserve and grow your portfolio.

Posted by jdavis on June 30, 2016

The Big Picture April 2016

I expect 2015 to 2018 to be similar to 2000 to 2003, the difference though being interest rates are already practically rock bottom. Think again about that.

Posted by jdavis on April 29, 2016

Focus on... Gold

How much do you have invested in gold, silver and mining shares? I'll wager it isn't enough.

Posted by jdavis on April 29, 2016

Pension Freedoms: the first 12 twelve months in numbers

Sttatistics from the last twelve months suggest that those who have taken advantage of the changes could have been a little more prudent.

Posted by jdavis on April 27, 2016

What IS an Offshore fund

The Panama Papers leak, from offshore law firm Mossack Fonseca, has thrust offshore funds back into the public spotlight. But whilst the media rails against those revealed to be profiting from such funds, there’s been little discussion of what an offshore fund actually is.

Posted by jdavis on April 27, 2016

The Big Picture February 2016

Posted by jdavis on February 16, 2016

Focus on... Oil

We've already had a huge crash. Can oil fall much further? Sure. Is it likely? No.

Posted by jdavis on December 31, 2015

The Big Picture December 2015

In The Big Picture I show what is really going on and what informs our thinking. The following is a sample of what I see now.

Posted by jdavis on December 30, 2015

Slower growth in 2016 and possible Recession

GLOBAL MARKETS (not us) suggest a slowing US economy in 2016 and possible Recession.

Posted by jdavis on December 30, 2015

Osborne's Autumn Statement and house prices

Posted by jdavis on November 25, 2015

Stock markets

The bull market can resume if the S&P rises to new highs and drags most sectors along with it. If, however, it is locked below early 2015 highs then we may well have reversed to a bear market.

Posted by jdavis on October 30, 2015

The Big Picture

Posted by jdavis on October 30, 2015

Focus on... gold mining

There is extraordinary value in Gold mining shares.

Posted by jdavis on October 30, 2015

State Pension changes in 2016 - can I top up my pension?

A new initiative allows people who reach the state pension age before April 2016, to top up their pension.

Posted by admin on October 30, 2015

Focus on oil investing

Buy Low.

Posted by jdavis on September 11, 2015

The Big Picture

These are some economics and markets stats you must see.

Posted by jdavis on September 11, 2015

Oh, you don't want to do THAT!

Advice to ruin your financial life

Posted by jdavis on September 11, 2015

Changes to Buy To Let taxation

To me this hasn't been a sound investment for years, taking into account Risk and Reward. Is this is a sound investment now?

Posted by jdavis on September 10, 2015

Summer 2015 Market Commentary

After reading this, you will probably feel the need to review your portfolio.

Posted by jdavis on September 10, 2015

You can only make money in the stock market

We were confident that the early 2015 highs were not a good buy.

Posted by jdavis on June 17, 2015

Do what Alan Sugar does: Buy cheaply.

Buying quality global assets cheaply is one of our primary investment philosophies. Do it with enough and you can make a strongly positive contribution to your wealth, given sufficient time. And who doesn't have a few years? If you don't you shouldn't be investing!

Posted by jdavis on June 17, 2015

Greece is the word

Posted by jdavis on April 21, 2015

Oil and energy investment opportunities

In late March we invested into Global Energy shares and we increased our investments in Emerging Markets' shares. The former is already up around 12% and the latter 7%.

Posted by jdavis on April 21, 2015

What's happening in housing?

They can never slash interest rates again. Thus the next Recession will turn Depressionary. What will happen to house prices in a 1930s style Depression? 41,000 homes are being built in London, above £1m. They sold 3,000 in 2014...

Posted by jdavis on March 31, 2015

The case for investing in Government Bonds

Our clients have been increasingly heavily invested in one of the stars of investing successes of 2014. We see every reason for this to continue in 2015 and perhaps 2016 too.

Posted by jdavis on February 19, 2015

FTSE

Normally, when Government Bonds rise sustainably, this is a bad omen for share prices. Yet shares are being bought more than for years.

Posted by jdavis on December 24, 2014

Commodity prices and Russia

Why is no-one talking about Russian stocks as buys? Because investors seem to only want to buy expensive assets. Too funny. And detrimental to wealth creation/preservation.

Posted by jdavis on December 24, 2014

But we haven't had sustained Deflation for decades!

It seems to us that Deflation is something we will all get used to. We haven't experienced it sustainably for decades. And THAT is the issue. Everyone assumes that what has been will be always. And THAT is what we have been trying to get people to see as nonsense for years.

Posted by jdavis on December 24, 2014

Pensions liberalisations

We hope you are not caught out in the biggest ponzi in history. Unfortunately, we feel you will be, whoever you are.

Posted by jdavis on December 17, 2014

Worst Current Account Deficit since 1955

This isn't just bad. It is absolutely dreadful. We haven't exported more than imported since 30+ years ago - not counting very brief periods in the 90s.

Posted by jdavis on December 10, 2014

US Treasuries

Nearly a third of advanced countries (or those which seek to be advanced) are right now in deflation.

Posted by jdavis on November 7, 2014

UK Housing market and house prices

As of now, and for the last several months, the UK housing market has slowed materially and in Central London has turned negative. Yes Central London

Posted by jdavis on October 27, 2014

DISinflation leading potentially to DEflation

Central bankers, bankers and politicians hate Deflation. Look at all that debt which would accumulate in real terms. Of course, the people would benefit greatly from Deflation. Business costs would fall. Living costs would fall. The Government and the Bank of England don't want you to experience falling prices. You Couldn't Make It Up.

Posted by jdavis on October 27, 2014

Western stock markets

So, everyone's making money in stocks, right? You decide.

Posted by jdavis on October 27, 2014

Emerging markets' index

Posted by jdavis on August 31, 2014

US Treasuries

One of our big investment holdings is the bonds of the United States. They are called Treasuries. (In the UK they call them Gilts). The next chart shows the price movement of US Treasuries (USTs)

Posted by jdavis on August 31, 2014

Precious Metals' investing

Small Cap miners has been a rocket ship

Posted by jdavis on June 20, 2014

Update to Investments ideas

Posted by jdavis on June 13, 2014

FT: Volatility extinguished by moves from central banks

Posted by jdavis on June 13, 2014

Update to Japanese ¥ to Japanese share prices

Sayanora ¥ Konichiwa Nikkei San

Posted by jdavis on May 10, 2014

What's going on with the US $

The level of the US$ is normally important to the level of US share prices and global commodity prices. So, where is it going?

Posted by jdavis on May 10, 2014

Margin Debt

Margin Debt is at all time highs. The Case Shiller Index is 3rd highest in history.

Posted by jdavis on April 15, 2014

Emerging Markets or Developed Markets?

We have been wondering out loud why it was appropriate to invest (in recent months) in shares which have risen for the last 5 years (Developed Markets) and sell out of markets which have crashed (Emerging Markets).

Posted by jdavis on April 15, 2014

Most important financial planning issues from the 2014 Budget

Posted by jdavis on March 29, 2014

Japanese ¥ to Nikkei Dow

If ¥:Nikkei breaks up, it means, probably, the ¥ is rising and the Nikkei is falling.

Posted by jdavis on February 26, 2014

Bitcoin

Some of you will have heard of it. Most not. Those who have heard of it may have heard of the Scandinavian who put $27 in, a few years ago, and last year bought an upmarket flat with his Bitcoins…

Posted by jdavis on February 22, 2014

China and Emerging Markets

There's been a lot of press and media comment recently on China's manufacturing data and overall economic activity.

Posted by jdavis on February 22, 2014

Festive Markets and Economics Update

Posted by jdavis on December 23, 2011

A brief update

Posted by jdavis on December 5, 2011

Santa's coming?

Posted by jdavis on November 28, 2011

Zig Zag Zig and maybe a further Zag Zig

Posted by jdavis on August 26, 2011

Armageddon or bust!

Posted by jdavis on August 5, 2011

Client only markets' update

Posted by jdavis on March 16, 2011

INSIDE JOB - 2011 Oscar winner Best Documentary

Posted by jdavis on February 28, 2011

Investments' and markets' update

Posted by jdavis on January 25, 2011

Buy the rumour, sell the news

Posted by jdavis on November 16, 2010

Benny and the Jet-propelled printing presses

Posted by jdavis on November 4, 2010

Paraphrasing the Bible: The market moves in mysterious ways

Posted by jdavis on September 27, 2010

Food Glorious Food

Posted by jdavis on August 18, 2010

Question: Which is the most important client-only update sent during these last few years? Answer: This one!

Posted by jdavis on July 2, 2010

Stock markets' update

I put it at 1 in 3 that the market will revisit the March 2009 lows. On the S&P, that would be sub 700 (40% down from 1150); on the FTSE that would be some 3500 (we are currently at 5250).

Posted by jdavis on June 3, 2010

Hold the presses - a financial regulator does its job!

This table was in The Economist last Friday. We said, just last Tuesday, that we see UK prices falling c 25-35% and this journal complies with our view with its estimate of 31% overvaluation in Q4 2009.

Posted by jdavis on April 19, 2010

Markets, markets, markets

I have had so many conversations recently where I have repeatedly stated other “advisers” find it very easy to have you buy but do they ever attempt to have you sell? Why not? Because they only earn when you are invested. Thus, they are vested interests in markets, property etc. On the other hand, we are as impartial and non-partisan as you could find. We advise you and we want only the best outcomes for you.

Posted by jdavis on April 13, 2010

Where's a Busby Berkeley when you need one?

Can the market continue rising? Is it more likely to fall than rise? If it rises what are the chances it will then fall to below where we are.

Posted by jdavis on October 6, 2009

The recession is over. Thus, sell shares!

We believe that, after 4 quarters of falling GDP, the next announcement or the one after will show that we have experienced a GROWING economy in the preceding quarter.

Posted by jdavis on August 27, 2009

Is it a bird? Is it a plane? No its Super Equities Man! Up, up and away?

I’m starting to wonder how far it will go. To the end of last year and in March I suggested 40-80% ie to between roughly 4750-5250 on the FTSE 100.

Posted by jdavis on August 3, 2009

Turn Turn Turn (The Byrds 1965)

Well, our current view (and it could change in a week if something major, globally, were to happen) is that this is a minor pullback to be followed by a continuation of the rally.

Posted by jdavis on June 23, 2009

It was the best of times. It was the worst of times. What a difference a ‘week’ makes.

From a view with just 25% conviction a few weeks ago i.e. that ...the stock market... would rise ongoing, we have come to the conclusion that we have seen the bottom.

Posted by jdavis on March 20, 2009

2008 and 2009: Years of return OF capital, not necessarily return ON capital

We are close to a major turning point in the stock market and during the weekend I considered very carefully what action to take.

Posted by jdavis on February 2, 2009

Where are we after they have nationalised the West's banking system? Wow!

Our clients took action and saved themselves from huge losses.

Posted by jdavis on October 13, 2008

Sell in May and Go Away, Come Back St Leger's Day

We have been watching closely the mini-rally in the stock market since we turned cautiously bullish in February

Posted by jdavis on May 20, 2008

Is the bear still growling?

Posted by jdavis on February 1, 2008

Super Ben to the Rescue

In our view, there will be a further leg down though we will know more in a while after the market has risen above 6000.

Posted by jdavis on January 24, 2008

Current Investment Markets

HOW PRESCIENT WAS THIS?

Posted by jdavis on September 20, 2007