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The Housing Market archive

The Big Picture December 2015

In The Big Picture I show what is really going on and what informs our thinking. The following is a sample of what I see now.

Posted by jdavis on December 30, 2015

Osborne's Autumn Statement and house prices

Posted by jdavis on November 25, 2015

Changes to Buy To Let taxation

To me this hasn't been a sound investment for years, taking into account Risk and Reward. Is this is a sound investment now?

Posted by jdavis on September 10, 2015

What's been and is happening in housing?

No doubt, we will learn over the next few months if the change in the market from buoyant to reversing has been because of fears of what might be after the General Election or because of the national and global economy.

Posted by jdavis on June 17, 2015

Disinflation affecting asset prices

The next time we have a Recession, remember they cannot slash rates as they did in 2009. Thus, in our expectation, the Recession will turn Depressionary.

Posted by jdavis on April 14, 2015

What's happening in housing?

They can never slash interest rates again. Thus the next Recession will turn Depressionary. What will happen to house prices in a 1930s style Depression? 41,000 homes are being built in London, above £1m. They sold 3,000 in 2014...

Posted by jdavis on March 31, 2015

Top end housing markets

You can't lose with property. Gosh, if we had a £ for every time we have heard the hubristic (and quite ignorant) "You can't lose with..." That is almost the definition of a burstable bubble.

Posted by jdavis on February 19, 2015

Retirees and Equity Release

It is reported that over 55s are borrowing record amounts from their homes. All well and good but a) why don't some just trade down? It's much much more efficient. b) their kids had better expect much less or NO inheritance...

Posted by jdavis on October 27, 2014

UK Housing market and house prices

As of now, and for the last several months, the UK housing market has slowed materially and in Central London has turned negative. Yes Central London

Posted by jdavis on October 27, 2014

Global house prices

Posted by jdavis on June 12, 2014

Only Brits obsessed with Real Estate?

The UK is uniquely obsessed with property ownership that the media push down our throats month in month out? It's quite rubbish you know.

Posted by jdavis on April 15, 2014

UK Budget AKA Party Political Broadcast

Budgets are NOT about sorting out an economy. They are about winning elections. It is now three years since the last General Election. It is only two till the next one.

Posted by jdavis on March 22, 2013

Hold the presses - a financial regulator does its job!

This table was in The Economist last Friday. We said, just last Tuesday, that we see UK prices falling c 25-35% and this journal complies with our view with its estimate of 31% overvaluation in Q4 2009.

Posted by jdavis on April 19, 2010

Markets, markets, markets

I have had so many conversations recently where I have repeatedly stated other “advisers” find it very easy to have you buy but do they ever attempt to have you sell? Why not? Because they only earn when you are invested. Thus, they are vested interests in markets, property etc. On the other hand, we are as impartial and non-partisan as you could find. We advise you and we want only the best outcomes for you.

Posted by jdavis on April 13, 2010

Turn Turn Turn (The Byrds 1965)

Well, our current view (and it could change in a week if something major, globally, were to happen) is that this is a minor pullback to be followed by a continuation of the rally.

Posted by jdavis on June 23, 2009

Sell in May and Go Away, Come Back St Leger's Day

We have been watching closely the mini-rally in the stock market since we turned cautiously bullish in February

Posted by jdavis on May 20, 2008