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You think I'M bearish...?

Posted by jdavis on October 11, 2011

The stock market has risen practically vertically over the last week, as it did just before the start of the October 2007 to March 2009 crash.
I thought there would be a try, first, for sub 1050 on the S&P 500 (it went to 1074 and rose the same day and has risen significantly to 1190 since).

The market might yet come back down to 1050 and then rally yet again.  Or it may not.  However, the 1250/1300 range has a lot of resistance to stop the market rise and we’re close to it already.

However, nothing changes.  There is so much bad news seemingly every day the market will catch up with reality.  There is huge manipulation of markets, short term, by central banks and major market participants.  Did you know that Dexia, the Franco-Belgian bank that was ‘nationalised’ (remember Northern Rock October 2007…) has (bad) loans outstanding amounting to 150% of the entire Belgian economy?  And that’s just one bank.  (BTW, UK banks have loans outstanding of 450% of the UK economy – and three of them have over 300% alone: RBS, HSBC and Barclays!).  (That is why I say the UK economy is as bad and worse as any of them.)

You think I’m bearish?  Only for excellent reasons.  I am not alone.  Not by a mile.  Here’s one of many examples from the US: Dr Martin Weiss 7 warnings, in advance

I’ve shown this before and here is an update:

It shows how unemployment stabilisation and returning to previously lower levels in the US is not even close to those seen in previous post-War recessions.  Not even close.
There is NO INDICATION yet of US employment stabilising, never mind getting back to where it was a few years ago.

Similarly, our own GDP is no higher than in 2006 and UK sees big rise in poverty going forward.  Indeed.



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